Tip #10: The Independent Chip Model (ICM)

The Independent Chip Model (ICM) should be one of your best tools when you reach the bubble and end game

Sit and Go professionals often use a mathematical model known as the ‘Independent Chip Model‘ or ‘ICM’ to make better decisions at the bubble. This converts your chip stack into ‘prize pool equity’ – which you then use to balance risk and reward for all-in confrontations. We recommend that you learn and implement this method – even if you do not intend to use it yourself it is important that you understand how it works. The reason is that many of your opponents will be using it – and understanding how they make decisions will help you to assign hand ranges to them.

Key to understanding ICM is to grasp the concept of ‘prize pool equity’. In a typical SNG tournament with payouts of 50% / 30% / 20% the number of chips in your stack at the bubble is not directly proportional to the average amount you will win – should the tournament be played 100’s of times over.

For example of 10,000 total chips you may hold 9,700 and each of 3 opponents may hold just 100 each. Yet the most you can win is 50% of the prize – and one opponent will turn their 100 chips into 30% of the prize pool. While the effect is usually more subtle than this the concept is constant, as you add more chips to your stack their ‘average value’ goes down in other words the chips that you lose are more valuable than the chips you win.

Here is an example of how ICM might help you to make a decision. While the math can seem complicated there are many poker tools which help you to learn this. It will become second nature in no time at all with the help of tools like SNG Wiz (check this article: best SNG softwares).

In this example you are playing on a $10+1 SNG on Poker Stars, with a $100 prize pool up for grabs in a 50% / 30% / 20% format. There are only four players left, each one with 1000 chips. Ignoring who has the blinds and skill differences the ‘average’ that each player will win over hundreds of situations is $25 – this is your ‘prize pool equity’.

• Player A: 1000 Chips. Prize pool equity = $25
• Player B: 1000 Chips. Prize pool equity = $25
• Player C: 1000 Chips. Prize pool equity = $25
• Player D: 1000 Chips. Prize pool equity = $25

Now player A pushes all in and player B calls and loses the hand. Here is the equity after the hand (calculated on SNG Wiz):

• Player A 2000 Chips. Prize pool equity = $38.33
• Player B 0 Chips = $0 -> eliminated
• Player C 1000 Chips. Prize pool equity = $30.83
• Player D 1000 Chips. Prize pool equity = $30.83

Looking at the prize pool equity after the hand shows that player B risked his $25 by calling the all-in from player A – yet his reward (in equity terms) was only an additional $13.33. Even though B felt that his hand had good chances against player A’s range, he was risking $25 to win $13, actually laying odds against himself.

This explains why it may be ‘correct’ to push all-in with a wide range at the bubble, but not to call when someone else has raised. Also note that the equity of players C and D went up, since they are now guaranteed 20% ($20) and have chances of winning.

ICM is a powerful model and we recommend that you take the time to learn how this applies to various situations. The free trial of SNG Wiz is a great place to start. We will discuss more about ICM in future SNG tips.

Tip #9: Understanding the “All-in” End Game

Your All-ins can be a powerful weapon on end game

Players who are not familiar with sit and go strategy will often look at the frequent all-in pushes at the bubble of a tournament and conclude that the skill of poker is missing. Nothing could be further from the truth, with those who understand the ‘all-in’ endgame properly having a huge advantage over their opponents which translates directly into profits. This article explains the thinking behind the all-in or fold bubble of a typical sit and go tournaments to allow you to likewise increase your returns.

We start with looking at all-in poker from the perspective of pot-odds, showing that – once the blinds get high – your poker playing options become limited. Next we look at decisions in terms of ‘equity’ in the prize pool and show why you need a far stronger hand to call an all-in than to push all-in to begin with.

Pot-odds represent the backbone of logic which shapes poker decisions in all forms of the game. The later stages of sit and go tournaments are no exceptions, with pot-odds plus the range of hands you assign to your opponents being the key factor.

Imagine you are playing a nine-handed table on Absolute Poker. After some beats you found yourself a little shortstacked. You have a stack of 10 times the big blind and open for a standard 3 times raise, say a 300 chip raise with a stack of 1000 and a blind of 100 to keep the numbers simple. A player behind you re-raises all-in to exactly 1000 chips, the blinds fold and you need to make a decision based on his range of any pair 8’s or above, ace-king through to ace-ten and king-queen suited.

Here are the numbers:

Pot = 300 (your raise) + 150 (blinds) + 1000 (opponent’s all in) = 1450

Cost to call = 700 chips

This means you are getting pot-odds of a little over 2-to-1 on the call, and need to win just under 33% of the time in order to show a profit. The question is what hands fit this criteria against the range we assigned to our opponent that were good enough to raise with in the first place?

Assuming you were raising pairs, picture cards and aces then the answer is all of them!

Now we can ask a question, if you are forced to call with any hand that you raised with then why not get the maximum leverage from those hands that you do not want to ‘race’ with in the first place – by pushing all-in. Against most thinking opponents there are a wide range of hands which an opponent might have re-raised you with which they will not call an all-in for all of their chips.

As you can see, when short-stacked, pot-odds play a large role in your pre-flop decision making process. However, real sit and go experts use another mathematical trick to make their bubble decision making even more profitable. This is known as the ‘Independent Chip Model’ and converts your chip stack into an ‘average equity’ in the prize pool. Make sure you read our next sit and go tip dedicated to profiting from this form of play to ensure you are making as much as possible from the tables!

ICM is a powerful model and we recommend that you take the time to learn how this applies to various situations. The free trial of SNG Wiz is a great place to start this.

Daniel Negreanu launches Poker VT – with SNG advice

Daniel Negreanu and a group of pros launched a poker training website called PokerVT.

Basically, the site features video lessons, coaching, articles and discussion about many poker topics, including Sit and Gos. They also have scheduled tournaments restricted to members.

I have just become a member, and I am impressed so far with the quality of their service. One of their users won a Sunday Million at Poker Stars, so the advice should be good

One of their interesting features is a poker table with pros, everyone discussing their actions when they are involved in the hand. Pretty good to learn how they think before acting.

If you want to give it a try, check their site here: Pover VT and watch their sample videos.

Tip #5: Two approaches to beat Sit and Gos

There are two main approaches to win Sit ‘n Go Tournaments. You can either play aggressively and try to build a big stack early on, or you can sit back, avoiding most confrontations and wait until the blinds go up to make some moves. Both approaches can be used successfully if exerted properly. Now let’s take a closer look at them:

The passive approach

Players that use this approach argue that the blinds are very low at the beginning and it’s not worth to steal blinds or fight for pots. And that’s why you should just sit back, wait for good hands and becoming active when the blinds and pots are higher.

If you’re usually a tight player you’ll have great success with this approach. Just sit back the first three blind levels and wait for big hands like aces, kings, queens and ace king. If you get some of these hands play them aggressively and try to double up! If you can’t find some playable hands it’s not that bad.

After the first three levels when the blinds increase again you have to become active. You can’t play just premium hands but you have to play worse hands too. You have to attack the blinds and bluff in some spots. The reason why this will work often times is that you created a tight image and your opponents will believe you when you tell them that you have a strong hand.

The aggressive approach

This approach is interesting for players that get bored if they have to wait for good hands. Players that use an aggressive approach try to win big pots early on and build a big stack to bully their opponents.

But you must not play like a maniac! Play many but upgradable hands. K2 isn’t playable but 54 may be! Try a lot of small attempts to steal pots if you smell weakness. Abuse when in good position and limp in multi-way pots. But be cautious not to try to play wild and risk all of your chips with a weak hand! If you pay attention to that you’ll become a successful player with an aggressive approach.

Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. It depends on your prefered style and experience. And it also depends on the version of the sit’n go whether it’s standard, turbo, winner takes it all or a double or nothing sit’n go.

Tip #2: Why Position Is So Important in SNGs

One of the critical factors in winning in any poker game is whether you act after your opponents. Many sit and go players ignore the value of position by failing to adjust their starting hands or bet sizing correctly. This sit and go tip will explain why position is so important in SNG tournaments and show you how to take advantage of position to improve your return on investment.

When thinking about position the key factors are these: Acting last can help you to win more chips when you are ahead, and acting last can also help you lose less chips when behind in the hand. Examples of both situations will be shown below, firstly we will look at why position at the table affects the range of hands you can play.

If you are first to act at a 9 or 10 handed table then there are a lot of ‘unknowns’ ahead of you. Some opponents may have strong hands, others may be aggressive with their medium strength hands and still others may be prone to call too often with speculative hands. This means that if you have a medium strength hand yourself you can not be sure that your bet will allow you to see a flop, and if you do see one then you may well be unsure of whether you have the best hand.

Contrast this with holding the dealer button, safe in the knowledge that you will act last on every betting round after the flop. You have now seen most of your opponents act – most of them folding – and only have the blinds (who will be out of position after the flop) as ‘unknowns’. You can be more comfortable playing a wide range of hands when these factors are in your favor.

Let us look at an example of the same hand from early and late position. Say you have a pair of 8’s and raise before the flop, getting 2 callers. From early position you are first to act after the flop – which will usually come with at least 1 card higher than your pair. If you check then your opponents are likely to assume this means weakness and bet – in which case you have no idea whether you are ahead or behind. If you bet and get flat called or raised by an opponent then you are equally in the dark.

Compare this same situation with acting last, now you get to see your opponents act before you make a decision. For example if the flop comes with an ace and one opponent bets and is raised by the second player then you can safely fold, safe in the knowledge you are beaten and not losing any further chips. If they both check then you can take a stab at the pot, at least if you are called your remaining opponent is likely to check to you on the turn, giving you a free river card.

Finally, we can look at this same situation when you flop a monster – in this case trip 8’s. When first to act you have a problem, raising into two opponents shows a lot of strength and may cause them to fold. Checking, when your opponents missed the flop may see them checking behind – failing to get any more chips into the pot. Contrast this with acting last, your bet is almost ‘expected’ when checked to and so more likely to be called. If your opponents bet you can either raise or flat call depending on their tendencies and the texture of the flop, a great way to build the pot and win your opponent’s entire stack.

To summarize, position affects your starting hand selection before the flop. You play less hands in early position because of the ‘unknowns’ of how your opponents will act ahead of you. After the flop, having position on your opponents will allow you to win more when ahead and lose less when behind – and that is how poker fortunes are made!

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